Bitcoin Set for a Positive July, Historical Trends Suggest

Bitcoin's historical performance data indicates that July tends to be a favourable month for BTC holders, offering a hopeful outlook after the cryptocurrency lost nearly 10% of its value in June.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the AU$93,546 (US$62,200) level and neared AU$94,949 (US$63,000) on Monday, thanks to a 2% rebound for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation. Data from CoinGlass revealed that BTC's movement pushed it above a liquidity wall worth AU$64.71 million (US$43 million), setting the stage for a potentially green month if historical patterns hold true. Historically, Bitcoin has increased by an average of almost 8% in July following a red candle close in June. Over the years from 2013 to 2024, BTC dropped in value six times in June but surged by at least 9.6% in July in each of those years.

This positive outlook is supported by the decreased sell-off activity from BTC miners. After significant liquidations to cover operational costs post-halving, mining entities have slowed their sales, offering a more stable environment for Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels

Data from Glassnode and IntoTheBlock indicates that Bitcoin has established support around the AU$90,938 to AU$92,584 (US$60,500 to US$61,600) range. Approximately two million addresses have accumulated over 891,800 BTC, valued at AU$83.67 billion (US$55.7 billion), within this zone. While a drop below this level is unlikely, it remains a possibility.

Conversely, significant resistance walls at AU$97,250 (US$64,700) and AU$97,018 (US$64,550) may impede Bitcoin's path to the AU$105,210 (US$70,000) range in the short term.

Promising Bitcoin Price Trends

On Monday, Bitcoin's price broke above the falling wedge pattern, trading up by 1.24% at AU$95,596 (US$63,571). Should BTC close above the daily resistance level of AU$96,547 (US$63,956), it could climb another 5% to test the next weekly resistance at AU$100,924 (US$67,147).

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator in the daily chart are currently below their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively. For a sustained bullish trend, these momentum indicators must rise above their neutral levels.

Should bullish sentiment prevail, and the overall crypto market outlook remain positive, BTC could extend an additional 6% rally to revisit its weekly resistance at AU$106,992 (US$71,280).

Lucy Gazmararian has noted that the correlation between BTC and macroeconomic events may strengthen due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. Given the ongoing global inflation, especially in the U.S., and tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, macro events could significantly impact BTC markets.

Key Macro Events to Watch

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak on July 2, followed by the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on July 3, and U.S. Jobs data on July 5. Positive outcomes from these events could enhance Bitcoin's bullish momentum this month or potentially stall its progress.

As we progress through July, Bitcoin's performance is expected to be shaped by these macroeconomic factors, setting the stage for an exciting period for BTC holders and investors. Are you ready to capitalise on the upcoming price movements?

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