Bitcoin Eyes $150K as Halving Cycle and US Uncertainty Fuel the Rally

Bitcoin has climbed past US$125,000, hitting fresh all-time highs as investors look for stability in a world that feels anything but. The ongoing US government shutdown, record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and renewed confidence in the halving cycle are all helping to push prices higher.

It’s one of those moments where global headlines seem to work in Bitcoin’s favour. With the US government once again at a funding standstill, markets are pricing in more policy uncertainty and a potential easing stance from the Federal Reserve.

Instead of dragging Bitcoin down, the news has had the opposite effect, the price has jumped nearly 10% since the start of October. As one analyst put it, “Sometimes the worst events bring the best pump.”

The shutdown has weakened the US dollar, sparked safe-haven demand, and reinforced Bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against traditional market instability.

Bitcoin’s strength also ties neatly into its four-year halving cycle, a pattern that has repeated through every major bull run since inception. Each halving reduces the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation, creating a predictable supply squeeze.

The last three cycles tell the story:

2012 → 2013: BTC rose to around US$1,150

2016 → 2017: Peaked near US$20,000

2020 → 2021: Hit US$69,000

Following the 2024 halving, Bitcoin has already surged over 300%, from roughly US$30,000 to US$122,000. If the pattern continues, a move toward US$150,000 by year-end isn’t far-fetched.

One key difference this cycle is who’s buying. Institutional investors are leading the charge, not retail traders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and ARK’s 21Shares ETF, have seen around US$35 billion in inflows so far this year, with forecasts of US$50 billion by mid-2025.

These large-scale allocations are giving Bitcoin more price stability than in previous cycles. For many institutions, Bitcoin has moved from a speculative play to a core portfolio asset, a long way from its early “digital gold” days.

Even after brief dips on hotter-than-expected inflation data, Bitcoin’s structure remains solid. The 20-week simple moving average continues to act as support, and momentum indicators point to fresh buying interest.

Traders are eyeing US$130K as the next key level, with a possible push toward US$150K if the trend holds through year-end.

The combination of halving momentum, macro uncertainty, and record institutional participation gives Bitcoin one of its strongest backdrops in years.