BTC Stuck in a Range as On-Chain Signals Split 

Bitcoin is still moving sideways, trading around US$68,800 at the time of writing. Price has spent the past nine days consolidating within a defined band, with neither buyers nor sellers establishing a clear edge.

What’s happening?

• Price action: BTC has been chopping between roughly US$65,700 and US$72,000 for just over a week, with no decisive breakout.
• Institutional flow: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw US$359.91 million in net outflows last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals and signalling softer demand.
• On-chain picture: Data is mixed, which typically aligns with a market waiting for a catalyst.

Institutional demand: ETF outflows continue

The primary macro signal remains ETF flows. According to SoSoValue, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$359.91 million in net outflows over the past week. That makes four straight weeks of withdrawals.

If outflows persist or accelerate, they can act as a headwind for BTC. It is not an immediate sell signal, but it does reduce the probability of a clean, sustained move higher without a fresh catalyst.

On-chain signals: Accumulation, but no capitulation

On-chain data from Santiment suggests positioning remains split.

Wallets in the 10 to 10,000 BTC cohort have accumulated around 18,000 BTC over the past four days. Smaller wallets holding under 0.1 BTC have also been buying aggressively over the same period.

Historically, more durable bottoms tend to form when larger holders accumulate while retail sells into fear. This broad-based buying may indicate the market has not yet fully flushed out weaker hands.

BTC’s 365-day MVRV, or Market Value to Realised Value, sits near -29.42 percent, implying the average long-term holder remains materially below cost basis. While that can coincide with attractive longer-term value zones, it does not guarantee immediate upside.

Social sentiment is roughly balanced, with bullish and bearish commentary close to one to one. In crypto markets, rising confidence during a rebound can sometimes signal complacency, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback rather than an immediate breakout.

Technical levels to watch

BTC has been consolidating between US$65,729, the range low, and US$71,746, the range high, since 7 February.

• Upside scenario: A break above US$71,746 would open the way toward US$73,072, the next near-term resistance.
• Downside scenario: A daily close below US$65,729 could see BTC drift towards the psychological support near US$60,000.

RSI is sitting around 36 and rebounding from oversold conditions. Bearish momentum has eased, though it has yet to turn decisively constructive.

MACD has printed a bullish crossover, supporting the case for stabilisation, but price needs to clear the range to confirm any structural shift.

Until BTC breaks either side of the range with follow-through, the base case remains continued consolidation. The key signal to monitor is whether ETF flows turn positive and price reclaims the upper band. That combination would carry more weight than indicators alone.