Bitcoin Stalls Below US$68K as Macro Pressure Caps Recovery  

Bitcoin’s latest rebound is showing signs of fatigue, with price action stalling just below the US$68,000 level despite a brief lift in risk sentiment.

After a volatile weekend, Bitcoin recovered from lows near US$65,000, climbing as high as US$68,000 intraday before settling in the mid-US$67,000 range in late Asian trade. The move was largely driven by dip-buying and a modest improvement in geopolitical sentiment, but follow-through has been limited.

The initial push higher came as markets responded to signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Reports of potential peace talks between the US and Iran, along with a temporary delay in planned military action, gave risk assets, including crypto, a short-term boost.

That shift was reflected in sentiment indicators, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index ticking slightly higher, though still firmly in “fear” territory.

The broader crypto market followed, edging up by around 1.6%, while altcoins saw only limited participation. This was not a broad risk-on move. It was a cautious bounce.

Despite the recovery, Bitcoin once again failed to break through the US$68,000 level, a zone that continues to act as a ceiling within the current market structure.

A few factors are capping the upside here:

• Long liquidations: More than US$240 million in long positions were wiped out during the move, stripping momentum from the rally
• Supply overhead: Traders who bought the early March dip are now looking to exit at breakeven, adding selling pressure
• Short-term positioning: Fast money remains reactive rather than committed

In short, supply is building overhead, and there is not enough conviction underneath to absorb it.

One of the more notable shifts has come from the institutional side. After four consecutive weeks of inflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly US$296 million in net outflows last week. That is a meaningful reversal and suggests larger players are stepping back rather than adding risk at these levels. Without that structural bid, rallies become harder to sustain.

Zooming out, the bigger story remains macro. Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude holding near US$114, keeping inflation concerns elevated and reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts in the near term. At the same time, capital has rotated back into traditional safe havens, with gold continuing to attract flows.

The ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is also critical. As long as that risk remains unresolved, markets are likely to retain a persistent war premium, which tends to weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, the US$68,000 to US$69,000 range has now clearly established itself as resistance. Failure to reclaim that zone keeps short-term momentum tilted to the downside.

A break lower could see Bitcoin revisit the US$65,000 demand area, with some analysts arguing that the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term.

Looking further out, on-chain models are also being watched closely. Metrics such as realised price and CVDD, both used to identify long-term cycle bottoms, suggest that a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out if macro conditions continue to tighten.

Some estimates place a potential cycle floor in the US$46,000 to US$54,000 range, though that would likely require a more sustained deterioration in global liquidity.

For now, the recent bounce looks more like a relief rally than the beginning of a new leg higher. Until Bitcoin can break and hold cleanly above US$68,000, supported by stronger flows and improving macro conditions, the market remains vulnerable to further downside.