Bitcoin Bounces Back Above $115K After Wild Tariff-Driven Sell-Off 

Bitcoin’s had quite a week. After tumbling to around US$104,000 over the weekend, the world’s largest digital asset is now trading near US$115,000, up about 3% on the day. The rebound follows a brutal Friday sell-off sparked by President Trump’s surprise announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which sent global markets (and Bitcoin) into a tailspin.

Just days earlier, Bitcoin had notched fresh all-time highs around US$125,000, capping off a month traders were calling “Uptober.” Then came the tariff shock. BTC dropped nearly 17% intraday, from roughly US$122K to US$107K, as risk assets across the board were sold off. By late Saturday, buyers had re-emerged, pushing prices back above US$110K.

This latest roller-coaster ride highlights how Bitcoin’s market structure has matured but not necessarily calmed. The volatility is still there, but its tone has changed. Analysts point to massive ETF inflows as the stabilising force. 2025 has seen tens of billions of dollars pour into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, making the market deeper and less prone to cascading liquidations.

Bitcoin’s surge through September and early October wasn’t random. A mix of macro forces and investor positioning created the perfect tailwind:

• Institutional inflows continue to rewrite market dynamics. BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF alone has attracted tens of billions in 2025, helping BTC absorb shocks that once would’ve sent it into freefall.
• With persistent inflation and a softer US dollar, investors have been rotating toward hard assets with gold and Bitcoin leading the pack.
• Uncertainty around a potential US government shutdown and mounting fiscal concerns have put digital gold back in favour.

Interestingly, Bitcoin behaved more like a risk-sensitive asset than a pure safe haven during the tariff announcement, selling off sharply with equities, then recovering once the panic eased. That dynamic underlines its growing integration into the broader financial ecosystem.

Despite the headline chaos, Bitcoin’s network health is excellent. Long-term holders control the majority of supply, and the hash rate (a proxy for network security) is at record highs. Institutional adoption remains firm: asset managers, corporates, and even some sovereign entities continue to view Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against fiat risk.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin sits in a critical zone. It’s currently holding above its 20-week moving average (~US$111,855), which tends to act as the dividing line between bull and bear phases.

• Support: Around US$117,500, aligning with the 50-day EMA and the recent swing low.
• Deeper Support: Between US$105K–110K, the area where buyers stepped in after the tariff crash.
• Resistance: Still US$124–125K, the recent peak and gateway to the next leg higher.

A break above $125K could open the path toward $135K and beyond; a close below $105K would raise the risk of a deeper correction. RSI momentum has turned up on the daily chart, suggesting buyers are regaining control, but weekly indicators hint at possible fatigue.

Most analysts agree: the bull market isn’t over, just catching its breath.

Standard Chartered’s crypto strategist reaffirmed a US$135K target, calling it “quickly incoming.” Others, including Marathon Digital’s CEO, have floated US$200K by year-end scenarios under continued ETF inflows. TS2.tech’s research points to a consensus band between US$130K and $160K by late 2025, extending toward US$200K in 2026 if macro conditions stay supportive.

Still, not everyone’s euphoric. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt and Robert Kiyosaki have warned of possible 30–50% corrections along the way, citing classic signs of overheated momentum and bearish RSI divergence.

In the short term, traders are watching how Bitcoin behaves between US$117K and $125K. That range will likely determine whether the current rebound evolves into a new rally, or stalls into a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin has once again shown why it commands such attention. It sold off hard on macro panic, then clawed back just as quickly which is a sign of resilient demand and institutional maturity. The narrative now revolves less around “if” Bitcoin can set new highs, and more around “when.”

As the year heads into its final stretch, expect volatility to remain high, but with an upward bias. With ETFs providing the deepest liquidity the asset has ever seen, and the global macro picture still favouring hard assets, Bitcoin looks well-positioned to end 2025 on strong footing.