What Will Bitcoin Price Be if Gold Hits US$5K?

Some pieces are worth amplifying. Today, we’re sharing a recent article from Cointelegraph that dives into the pricing relationship of gold and Bitcoin — and explores what Bitcoin's price might look like if gold climbs to US$5,000. It’s a sharp read that lines up well with the themes we’ve been tracking for a long time at Ainslie.

Read it here or below…

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold, more recently by sixfold.
• Gold’s climb toward US$5,000 could set the stage for significant Bitcoin gains.
• Weakening US dollar and rising global liquidity remain key drivers for both assets.

Gold’s march toward US$5,000 per ounce and beyond has become a big topic among hard-asset bulls, including Yardeni Research’s head Ed Yardeni and billionaire investor John Paulson.

But what could happen to the price of Bitcoin, touted as “digital gold” by many, if the precious metal surges even higher?

BTC price jumped 6x last time gold rallied

Bitcoin has historically delivered far more substantial gains than gold when their markets rally concurrently.

From March 2020 to March 2022, during the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policies, BTC’s price surged approximately 1,110%, while gold increased by only 35.5%.

In the November 2022–November 2023 rally, coinciding with rising global money (M2) supply, gold gained about 25%, while Bitcoin jumped by 150% or nearly 6x outperformance.

Gold’s climb from its current value of around US$3,265 to US$5,000 will equal 50% gains. So, if history repeats, Bitcoin could grow by 300% or to a price of US$285,000 per BTC.

That aligns with analyst apsk32’s projected Bitcoin price target, which is based on a power law model normalised against gold’s market cap.

Gold boom will push Bitcoin toward US$250K — veteran fund manager

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, sees gold heading to US$6,000 during Trump’s presidential term, arguing that bullion has lagged behind the global M2 money supply surge.

He links this bold target to Trump’s tariff policies, which he believes could weaken the US dollar by around 25%, boosting gold’s appeal alongside strong central bank demand and underweight investor positioning.

Holmes predicts that Bitcoin could break through its US$97,000 supply overhang and climb to US$120,000–US$150,000 in the near term, with a longer-term potential of reaching US$250,000 as adoption accelerates.

BTC can hit US$155K if gold’s lagging correlation holds

In late April, gold climbed to an all-time high of US$3,500, up 33.35% year-to-date (YTD). It has corrected slightly to reach US$3,237 as of May 5. In comparison, Bitcoin has risen merely 0.82% YTD.

Some market watchers, including analyst Cryptollica, point to Bitcoin’s past behaviour of following gold after a lag, suggesting a possible move toward the US$155,000 level if it breaks out of its prevailing consolidation range.

Bitcoin’s 30% pullback from its record high of around US$110,00 appears mild compared to past sell-offs of over 50%. This resilience strengthens its role alongside gold and raises the chance it could follow gold’s rally if market conditions improve.