Crypto: From Speculative Asset to Financial Infrastructure 

Key Takeaways

• Crypto has moved from a retail-driven market to one shaped by institutional money.
• Global liquidity and interest rates now influence Bitcoin more than crypto-specific events.
• The CLARITY Act stalling in the US Senate slows regulation, it does not reverse it.
• The signals worth watching are stablecoins, tokenised assets and bank participation.

The evolution of cryptocurrency can be viewed through three broad stages: World A, World B and the potential emergence of World C. These are not rigid dates, but a useful framework for understanding how the market is changing.

World A: Crypto as a speculative asset

Approx. 2010–2020/22

In the first phase, crypto was largely a self-contained, retail-driven market. Bitcoin and other digital assets were primarily viewed as speculative investments, with prices heavily influenced by adoption narratives, retail enthusiasm, leverage and crypto-specific events.

Macro conditions mattered, but the connection to traditional financial markets was relatively limited. The 2017 and 2020–21 cycles demonstrated the enormous upside potential of crypto, but also its extreme volatility.

The defining relationship was:
Crypto-specific liquidity → crypto prices

World B: Crypto becomes an institutional asset

Approx. 2021–late 2020s

The market is now moving through a second phase. Institutional participation, regulated investment products, professional custody, stablecoins and greater regulatory oversight are connecting crypto much more closely with traditional finance. The transition from World A to World B has not necessarily eliminated crypto’s volatility. Instead, it may be changing the source of that volatility.

Bitcoin increasingly behaves as a high-beta risk asset, meaning global liquidity, interest rates, real yields and institutional risk appetite can have a greater influence on prices.

The relationship becomes:
Macro liquidity → institutional capital → crypto

Regulation is an important part of this transition. The EU’s MiCA framework became fully applicable on 30 December 2024 (Norton Rose Fulbright), while the U.S. has legislated a federal stablecoin framework through the GENIUS Act, signed into law on 18 July 2025 (Morrison Foerster, 21 July 2025). That framework is on the books but not yet in force: regulators missed the 18 July 2026 deadline for final implementing rules with every package still at proposal stage, leaving 18 January 2027 as the statutory effective date (Astraea Counsel). The U.S. market-structure framework remains incomplete following the Senate’s September 2026 failure to advance the CLARITY Act.

Importantly, the failure of CLARITY does not return the market to World A. Institutional infrastructure and stablecoin regulation are already advancing, while U.S. regulators continue developing rules through existing authorities. The Clarity Act, a legislative effort to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., has failed to advance in Congress, missing a Senate procedural vote by 11 votes: cloture on the motion to proceed failed 49-50 on 15 September 2026, against the 60 votes required (Decrypt, 15 September 2026).

The bill aimed to support mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency but faced resistance, including opposition from banking groups and debates over ethics rules to prevent government officials from profiting from crypto. Eight banking trade groups, including the American Bankers Association, rejected the bill’s stablecoin rewards “circuit breaker” ahead of the vote (Decrypt, 15 September 2026). With the bill stalled and unlikely to return before the midterms, focus has shifted to federal agencies such as the SEC and CFTC, which are now moving forward with their own rulemaking. The bill is not formally dead: Senator Thom Tillis switched his vote to no in order to file a motion to reconsider, which keeps a path open for another cloture vote in this session (crypto.news).

The SEC has proposed allowing startups to raise funds via token offerings without triggering securities laws, through proposed Regulation Crypto Assets released on 18 August 2026, which includes a startup exemption of up to US$5 million over four years (Sullivan & Cromwell, August 2026). It has also approved tokenised stock trading, granting a five-year conditional exemption for tokenised US-listed shares on 17 September 2026 (Forbes, 17 September 2026). Analysts note that while these agency-led regulations can help fill the legislative gap, they are vulnerable to changes by future administrations. Industry leaders expressed concerns over the resulting uncertainty for investment.

Not everyone reads the stall as a negative. Circle’s Jeremy Allaire argued the failure does not change the underlying momentum behind digital asset adoption, and Michael Saylor said the industry may be better off developing under existing agency rules than under the final CLARITY compromise (KuCoin News).

Despite the setback, regulators are moving ahead with efforts to integrate crypto into the financial system, although market indicators like Bitcoin fell in response to the bill’s failure and continued regulatory ambiguity, dropping about 2.8% to near US$76,000 as the vote came in (FinanceFeeds, 16 September 2026).

World C: Crypto becomes financial infrastructure

Potentially late 2020s–2030s and beyond scenario…

World C is the potential next stage (and it is not yet established).

Here, blockchain technology moves beyond being primarily an investment market and becomes part of the financial system’s underlying infrastructure. Stablecoins could become an important digital-dollar settlement layer. Treasury bills, bonds and other assets could increasingly be tokenised. Bitcoin could become more widely used as institutional collateral, while blockchain networks could provide infrastructure for financial settlement and potentially credit markets.

The relationship could therefore evolve into:
Macro liquidity ↔ crypto liquidity ↔ financial markets

This is the key difference.
In World B, crypto primarily responds to the financial system.
In World C, crypto could increasingly participate in transmitting liquidity, collateral and credit through the financial system.

World A was dominated by speculation and crypto-native leverage.

World B is increasingly influenced by global liquidity and institutional portfolio allocation.

World C could introduce a new dynamic: a financial ecosystem in which stablecoins, tokenised assets, crypto collateral and blockchain-based settlement create feedback loops of their own.

In a bull market, expanding liquidity could increase crypto prices, collateral values, stablecoin activity and credit simultaneously. In a bear market, the same mechanisms could operate in reverse, potentially amplifying deleveraging.

For customers, the key question is therefore not simply whether U.S. crypto legislation passes. The more important long-term indicators are stablecoin growth, institutional adoption, tokenised assets, bank participation, crypto credit and blockchain-based financial settlement.

If those trends continue, crypto may gradually move from being simply an asset class to becoming part of the financial infrastructure itself. Whichever stage the market is in, where an asset is held and under whose law still matters: Ainslie Crypto holds client digital assets in Australian-based custody, and Gold Silver Standard applies the same tokenised settlement logic to physical metal.

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This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.