Bitcoin Slips into “Extreme Fear” as Weekend Volatility Bites 

Bitcoin had a rough weekend. After breaking below $80,000 on Saturday, BTC briefly dipped to around $74,500 before bouncing back toward $78,500. The move extends a run of monthly declines and has pushed sentiment firmly into defensive mode.

Markets were hit by a familiar mix of macro uncertainty, policy headline risk, and forced deleveraging.

• Leveraged flush-out: Around $2.2 billion in leveraged crypto positions were reportedly liquidated within a 24-hour window, with long positions bearing the brunt. That liquidation flow added momentum to the downside.
• Risk-off contagion: It wasn’t just crypto. Broader risk assets were unsettled, and even traditional “safe” trades saw sharp, fast moves as investors prioritised cash and liquidity.

The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 14, firmly in “extreme fear” territory. That doesn’t automatically mean a bottom is in, but it does signal that markets are currently pricing uncertainty first and upside later.

Prediction markets have also turned more cautious. Odds now lean toward BTC dipping toward ~$69,000 before any sustained recovery toward $100,000, a notable reversal from sentiment just two weeks ago.

What the charts are saying

• Daily trend: Still decisively negative, despite the bounce.
• Moving averages: The 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA, a classic downtrend signal, with short-term momentum lagging the longer-term trend.
• Trend strength: ADX around 32 suggests the trend has conviction, and for now that conviction remains to the downside.
• Oversold pressure: RSI near 30 is the one counterpoint. Selling pressure looks stretched enough to allow relief rallies, even if the broader trend stays bearish.

Zooming in, the 4-hour chart shows BTC attempting to reclaim short-term moving averages after the $74.5K bounce. Momentum, however, remains heavy and trend strength readings elevated. In short: a bounce is plausible; a trend reversal still needs confirmation.

The levels that matter right now

If you only track a few numbers this week, make them these.

Support

• $74,500 (weekend low / near-term floor)
• $69,000 (next major support and psychological level)

Resistance

• $80,600 (immediate overhead resistance; a daily close above would be a meaningful first step)
• $91,350 (a stronger “regain control” zone where prior support, resistance, and trend signals converge)
• $98,000 (structural resistance)

What to watch next

If BTC can hold $74.5K on any retest, the market has scope to stabilise and move sideways, more consolidation than celebration. A clean break below $74K, however, likely puts $69K back in play and keeps volatility elevated.

As always in moments like this, the near-term story is less about narratives and more about liquidity, leverage, and headline risk.