Hard Money When Confidence Thins 

Citadel founder Ken Griffin has been blunt about the real risk facing markets. Sovereign finances are becoming the pressure point. With US debt entrenched in the high-$30-trillion range and deficits proving persistent, the system is running out of comfortable policy options. Higher rates strain government balance sheets, austerity is politically fraught, and organic growth is hard to generate.

That reality explains why artificial intelligence has taken on such importance. It is not just a technology story. It is the last credible path to a productivity lift large enough to buy time. If AI delivers, the system stretches forward. If it does not, confidence erodes under the weight of accumulated promises.

Either way, investors are being pushed back to first principles. What actually works as money when trust in policy weakens?

Metals first, Bitcoin next?

Precious metals have already answered that question. Gold and silver have been in clear bull trends, reflecting demand for assets that sit outside the sovereign promise. They are scarce, durable, widely accepted, and do not depend on policy credibility.

Bitcoin shares many of those same monetary traits. Its supply is fixed, issuance is rule-based, and it exists outside government balance sheets. The difference is behaviour. Gold tends to move first and defensively. Bitcoin often lags, then moves sharply once confidence and liquidity rotate toward broader hard-money exposure.

That divergence is now visible. While metals have surged, Bitcoin has largely traded sideways. Given the overlap in use case, preserving value when monetary credibility is questioned, that gap may be less a contradiction and more a sequencing issue.

The Takeaway

If the AI productivity bet succeeds, it likely comes with continued deficits and ongoing pressure on purchasing power. If it fails, the adjustment comes through inflation tolerance or financial repression. In either scenario, the case for non-sovereign money strengthens.

For investors, this is not about choosing between gold or Bitcoin. Bullion offers stability. Bitcoin offers asymmetry. When confidence becomes the scarce asset, both tend to matter, just not always at the same time.